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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 7 yards (31-T.Goodson; 16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP