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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 17

New York Jets 24 – Indianapolis Colts 22

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 18-A.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP