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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 7-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP