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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 40

New York Jets 14 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 18-A.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model