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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 13 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model