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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs to IND 30 for 13 yards (55-C.Surratt; 42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP