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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 83-T.Conklin. 83-T.Conklin up the middle to NYJ 39 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 51-K.Paye).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model