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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 10

Houston Texans 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 28-J.Mixon right end pushed ob at DAL 1 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +3.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model