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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 30

Houston Texans 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 12. 28-M.Hooker to DAL 33 for 21 yards (70-J.Scruggs).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model