Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Houston Texans 7

(10:41) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass short middle to 30-J.Thomas to DAL 37 for 4 yards (8-J.Metchie).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP