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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model