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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model