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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.42 EP