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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model