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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 51

Houston Texans 17 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP