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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model