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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to CHI 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-26-C.Ballentine.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model