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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 19 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 42 for 21 yards (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model