Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 54

Chicago Bears 19 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to GB 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed to GB 22 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer; 92-D.Hardy). ** Injury Update: CHI-22-E.Hicks has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.17 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model