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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 43

Chicago Bears 13 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left tackle to GB 39 for 4 yards (94-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model