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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 9

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP