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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 14 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at NO 26 for 8 yards (1-A.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.37 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model