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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-E.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model