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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model