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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model