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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model