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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model