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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model