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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model