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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to SF 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-98-A.Nelson at SF 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model