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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to TB 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP