Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(:16) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to SF 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.98 EP
54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -1.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model