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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:29) 4-J.Moody 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model