Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

(5:20) (Punt formation) 28-M.Killebrew pass incomplete short left to 42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.00 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP