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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model