4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 50

Washington Commanders 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model