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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 97

Washington Commanders 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PIT 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to WAS 46 for 17 yards (40-T.Owens; 32-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.16 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model