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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 23

Washington Commanders 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 47-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP