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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 92

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 8-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 92, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 50, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model