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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 54

Washington Commanders 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PIT 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 7 for no gain (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model