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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model