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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 30

Washington Commanders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 47-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model