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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-O.Zaccheaus MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP