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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-O.Zaccheaus MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at WAS 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP