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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 74

Washington Commanders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 10-T.Way punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model