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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model