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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.50 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP