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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model