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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 50
Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7
What Actually Happened
(6:33) (No Huddle) 10-C.Rush up the middle to PHI 48 for 2 yards (97-M.Ojomo).
The Three Options
GO
+1.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.79 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.38 EP
KICK
-0.83 EP
- 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT
-0.24 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
