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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 47

Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to NE 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.32 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model